The factoring market: what the numbers actually say
Figures circulating in late 2025 claimed the U.S. factoring market reached $184 billion that year. We could not find a published measurement behind that number. The most widely cited estimate comes from Grand View Research, which values the U.S. factoring services market at $171.98 billion in 2024 and projects a compound annual growth rate of 9.4% from 2025 to 2030, reaching $287.61 billion by 2030. A 2025 figure derived from that projection is a forecast, not a count, and it covers every industry, not only freight.
What the research does support is the direction: Grand View describes invoice factoring as a primary source of funding for the transportation and logistics industry and expects small and medium-sized businesses to be leading buyers. Claims that a specific share of trucking companies factor, or that freight makes up a specific share of all factoring, could not be traced to a source and are left out here.
Cargo theft and freight fraud
The most-quoted fraud figures of 2025 were in fact 2024 numbers.
- Truckstop's 2024 Freight Fraud Report put reported losses from theft, double brokering and impersonation scams at more than $455 million, with 65,000 thefts recorded, up 40% from 2023. It said double brokering rose as much as 400% in certain regions.
- Verisk CargoNet recorded a record 3,625 cargo theft incidents across the U.S. and Canada in 2024, up 27% year over year, with an average value per theft of $202,364.
Full-year 2025 data came out after this post was first published. In January 2026 Verisk CargoNet estimated 2025 cargo theft losses at nearly $725 million, up 60% from 2024, with the average value per theft rising 36% to $273,990. The total number of supply chain crime events was roughly flat (3,594 in 2025 against 3,607 in 2024), which means thieves went after higher-value loads.
The methods did not change much: fake or hijacked carrier identities, spoofed email and phone numbers, and double brokering. For carriers who factor, the defences are practical:
- Verify every new broker or shipper through your factor before you accept the load.
- Treat any request to change payment details or remit-to information as suspect until confirmed by phone through a number you already have.
- Ask your factor what it does when a load turns out to be double brokered, and who carries the loss.
Regulatory changes that took effect in 2025
Paper payments to FMCSA ended
From 30 September 2025 the FMCSA stopped accepting checks and money orders for any transaction. Payments now go by debit or credit card, and paper applications must include card details.
English proficiency enforcement
Since 25 June 2025, drivers who cannot meet the English language proficiency requirement can be placed out of service at roadside, following the April 2025 executive order and a change to the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's out-of-service criteria.
Speed limiters withdrawn
FMCSA and NHTSA formally withdrew the speed limiter proposals in a Federal Register notice on 24 July 2025.
Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse
States have had to downgrade the commercial privileges of drivers in "prohibited" Clearinghouse status since the 18 November 2024 compliance date of FMCSA's Clearinghouse-II rule. The driver stays off the road until the return-to-duty process is complete.
MC numbers were not eliminated
Some trade sites reported that MC numbers were discontinued on 1 October 2025. FMCSA had in fact deferred that change from the first phase of its new registration system, so carriers should keep using both MC and USDOT numbers until the agency says otherwise.
Rules to watch in 2026
- Broker transparency. FMCSA proposed in November 2024 to make clear that brokers must provide transaction records to carriers on request and to change the format and content of those records. A final rule had not been issued when this post was written. Better access to broker records would make it easier to check what a load actually paid.
- Broker and freight forwarder financial responsibility. FMCSA moved the compliance date for parts of its 2023 broker financial responsibility rule to 16 January 2026, tying it to the new online registration system.
- Automatic emergency braking. NHTSA and FMCSA proposed AEB for heavy vehicles over 10,000 pounds in July 2023. It remains a proposal, not a requirement, so be wary of claims that it applies to 2027 trucks.
- EPA 2027 engine standards. EPA's January 2023 final rule tightens NOx and other emission standards for heavy-duty engines beginning no later than model year 2027. In July 2026 EPA proposed amendments to that program, including changes to useful life and warranty periods. Either way, new trucks in this period are likely to cost more.
- Paper medical certificates. A waiver letting drivers rely on a paper medical examiner's certificate for up to 60 days was extended several times. FMCSA later said that, apart from Alaska, drivers may no longer rely on the paper certificate as of 12 October 2026.
The 2026 outlook as it stood in December 2025
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook estimated that on-highway diesel averaged $3.67 a gallon in 2025 and forecast $3.50 for 2026. The weekly survey had the price at $3.607 in the week of 15 December 2025.
That forecast did not hold. Diesel climbed above $5 a gallon in March 2026, with the EIA weekly average reaching $5.071 on 16 March and $5.643 on 6 April. It is a reminder that fuel forecasts are a planning baseline, not a budget you can count on, and that a factor's fuel advance terms matter most when prices jump.
Other forecasts that circulated in December 2025, for spot rate growth, freight volumes, carrier exits and new truck prices, could not be traced to a source we were able to verify and are not repeated here.
What to check in your factoring agreement for 2026
- The total cost. Add up the discount rate, fuel advance fees, transfer fees and any minimums. Our freight factoring cost guide and hidden fees guide list the usual charges.
- Recourse terms. Non-recourse usually covers only a broker's insolvency, not disputes or fraud. See recourse vs non-recourse factoring.
- Fraud handling. Ask what the factor does when a load is double brokered or a broker's identity was stolen.
- Exit terms. Know the notice period and buyout process. See how to switch factoring companies.
To compare providers, start at the freight and trucking factoring page or request quotes.