Midway through 2025 the freight market was still waiting for a recovery that had been promised for two years. The industry's own forecasts were cautiously positive, but most of the news small carriers had to act on in June was about compliance.
Recovery forecast
In January 2025 the American Trucking Associations forecast that truck volumes would grow 1.6% in 2025, after two years of declines. The same forecast projected truck tonnage rising to nearly 14 billion tons by 2035.
A forecast is not a rate increase. The long freight downturn squeezed many carriers out of the market, and fewer trucks chasing the same freight is what eventually lifts rates. Until that shows up in your lanes, plan cash flow on the rates you are actually getting, not on projections. Our freight factoring cost guide shows how factoring fees eat into those rates.
Replace revoked ELDs before 11 July
On 12 May 2025 the FMCSA removed eight electronic logging devices from Gorilla Fleet Safety from its list of registered ELDs. Carriers using them had up to 60 days to replace them, so the deadline was 11 July 2025. After that, a carrier still using one of these devices is treated as operating without an ELD, and drivers can be placed out of service at roadside.
These were specific revoked devices, not a general expiry of older ELDs. The FMCSA revokes devices from time to time, so check that the model you run is still on the registered list. Replacing an ELD does not change any hours-of-service rules.
Roadcheck 2025
The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance held its annual International Roadcheck inspection blitz on 13 to 15 May 2025. This year's focus areas were tires on the vehicle side and false records of duty status on the driver side. Keep up with tire and brake maintenance and keep logs accurate every week, not just during Roadcheck.
California zero-emission truck rules
On 22 May 2025 the Senate voted to revoke the federal waivers that allowed California to enforce its Advanced Clean Trucks rule and its heavy-duty low-NOx Omnibus rule, and the President signed the resolutions on 12 June 2025. That eased near-term pressure on carriers serving California to buy zero-emission equipment. California's own policies can still change, so carriers with significant California freight should keep watching before committing to an equipment plan.
Tariffs stay in place for now
On 28 May 2025 the Court of International Trade ruled that the President had overstepped by imposing broad tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The next day the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals issued a temporary stay, so the tariffs remained in effect while the government appealed. Tariffs affect what freight moves and where: import-heavy lanes can soften, while domestic manufacturing freight may pick up. Carriers who depend on port or import-related freight should watch volumes closely.
Autonomous trucks start commercial runs
On 1 May 2025 Aurora began commercial driverless trucking between Dallas and Houston, with Hirschbach Motor Lines and Uber Freight as launch customers, and said its trucks had driven about 1,200 miles without a driver. This is not an immediate threat to small carriers' freight, but it is worth knowing which corridors are being tested.
Fuel
The U.S. average retail diesel price was $3.471 a gallon in the week of 9 June 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration. It then rose to $3.775 by the week of 23 June, so fuel costs started climbing again by the end of the month.
What to do now
- Confirm your ELD is still registered and replace any revoked device before the deadline.
- Keep brake, tire and log compliance tight. An out-of-service order delays delivery and therefore delays payment.
- Track broker payment times. If they are slipping, consider whether non-recourse factoring is worth the higher cost.
- Build cash reserves while you can. Factoring speeds up payment, but it does not replace a buffer.
For how the year played out, see our freight factoring market trends roundup. To compare factors, see the freight and trucking page.