The Supreme Court Tariff Ruling and Freight Rates: Freight Factoring News, March 2026

The first quarter of 2026 handed small carriers a court ruling, a run of winter storms, a regulatory change that removes drivers, and a war that sent diesel sharply higher. Each one pulled rates and costs in a different direction, and the carriers best placed to react were the ones not waiting weeks to be paid.

Winter storms tightened capacity

Three winter storms, Fern, Gianna and Ezra, disrupted freight networks across the eastern United States in February and tightened available truckload capacity, according to DAT. Spot van and reefer rates rose for the seventh consecutive month.

DAT's February averages:

The gap between spot and contract van rates narrowed to its smallest since March 2022, which on DAT's numbers works out to 11 cents a mile. That is a sign that truck supply and freight demand were moving toward balance.

Volume did not drive the increase. DAT's truckload volume index fell from January for all three equipment types and was about 6% below February 2025. Rates were rising because there were fewer trucks competing for loads, not because there was more freight. A market tightened by supply alone is fragile: a demand pickup would accelerate it, but there was little sign of one.

The Supreme Court tariff ruling

On 20 February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose broad tariffs. The decision voided the tariffs imposed under that law. The Tax Foundation estimated those tariffs would have raised $1.4 trillion over the following decade.

The administration responded the same day with a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective 24 February. Section 122 tariffs cannot exceed 15% and are limited to 150 days unless Congress extends them. The president announced the next day that the rate would rise to 15%, though no revised order had been issued at that point.

Section 232 tariffs stayed in force, including a 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and truck parts that took effect on 1 November 2025. For fleets planning equipment purchases, that keeps new-truck costs elevated.

For trucking, the short-term effect was uncertainty. Import volumes could rise if the lower rate makes foreign goods cheaper, or stay flat while shippers wait to see what replaces the surcharge when the 150 days run out. Drayage operators and carriers on cross-border and port lanes should expect uneven volume.

Diesel: from gradual to sudden

DAT reported the national average diesel price rose to $3.71 a gallon in February, up about 6% from January, and the average van fuel surcharge climbed from 38 cents a mile in January to 41 cents in February.

Then the market changed. The conflict involving Iran that began in late February left the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, and the Energy Information Administration estimated 8.92 million barrels a day of Middle East crude production was shut in during March. In normal times, oil moving through the strait equals about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. EIA's weekly national diesel average went from $3.897 a gallon on 2 March to $4.859 on 9 March and $5.071 on 16 March, the first reading above $5.

For carriers, fuel is the cost that moves fastest. Fuel advances and fuel card discounts through a factor are worth comparing on actual cents per gallon, especially when prices jump week to week.

Non-domiciled CDL rule takes effect

FMCSA published its final rule on non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses on 13 February 2026, effective 16 March 2026. It largely reaffirms the September 2025 interim rule: going forward, non-domiciled CDLs and learner's permits are limited to holders of H-2A, H-2B and E-2 status, and employment authorization documents no longer qualify. When the interim rule came out, DOT put the number of non-domiciled CDL holders at roughly 200,000 and estimated about 194,000 would leave the market over two years as licenses come up for renewal. The interim version had been stayed by the D.C. Circuit while it was litigated, so check the rule's current status before relying on it.

The likely result is less capacity over time, which supports rates for carriers that remain, and hiring problems for fleets that rely on these drivers.

Broker financial responsibility

FMCSA's broker and freight forwarder financial responsibility rule reached its single compliance date for all provisions on 16 January 2026. Brokers and freight forwarders must keep the $75,000 surety bond or trust fund that federal law requires, and revised BMC-84 surety bond and BMC-85 trust fund forms apply from that date. The intent is to make sure carriers can collect when a broker fails to pay. Some smaller brokerages may leave the market rather than meet the new standards. Check a broker's authority and financial security before hauling for it, or rely on your factor's credit check.

Fraud and cargo theft

Cargo theft and freight fraud remained a serious problem going into 2026, with criminals using stolen carrier identities, fake brokers and double brokering. Factors add a layer of review by checking broker credit, authority and load documents before funding. A single stolen or unpaid load can sink a small carrier, so a factor that rejects suspicious brokers early is doing real work for its fee.

What was on FMCSA's agenda

Heading into 2026, FMCSA had dozens of open rulemakings, with trade press expecting many to miss their target dates. Items on the list included broker transparency, ELD requirements, Clearinghouse violation information, exams for new carrier applicants, autonomous driving systems and automatic emergency braking. Any of these could change compliance costs or paperwork, so watch for proposals and comment periods.

Choosing a factor in a volatile quarter

With rates, fuel and rules all moving, prioritize:

• Fraud screening: broker credit checks, identity verification and authority monitoring
• Funding speed: confirm the actual same-day cutoff, not a general promise of fast funding
• Fuel programs: compare per-gallon discounts and network coverage
• Contract flexibility: month-to-month terms or reasonable exit terms, without high monthly minimums
• Non-recourse terms: know exactly which failures are covered
• Total cost: the discount rate plus wire, credit check and fuel advance fees

Our guides to freight factoring costs, recourse vs non-recourse factoring and switching factoring companies cover the details.

What to watch, April to June

• Section 122 expiry: the 150-day surcharge window and what replaces it
• Capacity: continued carrier exits and the non-domiciled CDL rule removing drivers
• Seasonal freight: spring construction and produce volume
• Diesel: the Hormuz disruption kept prices high and volatile
• Equipment costs: tariffs on trucks and parts keep new tractors expensive

The market trends overview tracks how these played out through 2026.