The truckload market heading into November 2026 is tight in an unusual way. Freight volumes are flat to lower than a year ago, yet rates are far higher, because there are fewer trucks posting for loads. At the same time, diesel has passed $6 a gallon, so a rate that looks strong on paper can be thin after fuel. This update collects the latest published figures from DAT and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, through the week ending October 31, 2026. DAT's October monthly figures had not been released when we published. We will update this page when they are.
September: spot rates up, but contract pays more again
DAT's September 2026 report showed spot and contract rates including fuel rising for all three equipment types:
| Equipment | Spot (all-in, per mile) | Contract (all-in, per mile) | Spot vs Sept 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dry van | $3.01 | $3.24 | up 96 cents |
| Reefer | $3.62 | $3.58 | up $1.18 |
| Flatbed | $3.61 | $4.04 | up $1.11 |
The reefer spot average was a monthly record, topping the previous high of $3.60 from January 2022. Reefer and flatbed contract averages also set records.
Strip out fuel and the picture changes. Spot linehaul rates, which exclude an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge, rose 9 cents to $2.70 for reefer but fell 2 cents to $2.17 for van and 10 cents to $2.60 for flatbed. Contract linehaul was $2.40 for van, $2.66 for reefer and $3.03 for flatbed. In other words, much of September's all-in increase was fuel.
This is a reversal from early summer. DAT reported that van spot rates passed contract rates in June and reached parity with them in July, at $2.39 a mile linehaul. Then August brought the steepest July-to-August declines in DAT's 16-year rate history, and van and reefer spot rates slipped back below contract. In August, van spot linehaul averaged $2.19 against $2.41 for contract. Flatbed contract has paid more than spot all year.
October: rates steady at a high level
Weekly DAT data through October show rates holding well above last year, with small moves week to week. All-in spot rates (linehaul plus fuel) for the week of September 27 to October 3 were $3.13 for van, $3.69 for reefer and $3.71 for flatbed, lifted by quarter-end freight. The following week of October 4 to 10 they were $3.12, $3.68 and $3.68.
The most recent linehaul figures, for the week ending October 31:
| Equipment | Spot linehaul (per mile) | Change vs a year ago | Load-to-truck ratio (year-ago) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dry van | $2.23 | up 32.6% | 10.93 (6.37) |
| Reefer | $2.71 | up 31.2% | 15.73 (11.02) |
| Flatbed | $2.61 | up 28.6% | 41.73 (23.14) |
DAT said dry van load posts were 26.8% above a year ago while truck posts were 26.1% below. Its 35-day forecast had van linehaul at $2.26, reefer at $2.73 and flatbed at $2.60, each well above year-earlier levels. DAT flagged two calendar effects for the window: retail restocking for Black Friday and Cyber Monday on the van side, and Thanksgiving perishables pulling reefer loads forward. On flatbed, it expects construction and industrial freight to slow around Thanksgiving and year-end.
Diesel above $6 a gallon
The EIA's weekly national average for on-highway diesel reached $6.529 a gallon for the week of September 21, 2026, the highest weekly reading in records going back to 2007. It has eased only slightly since:
| Week of | Diesel (per gallon) |
|---|---|
| Sept. 21, 2026 | $6.529 |
| Oct. 5, 2026 | $6.199 |
| Oct. 26, 2026 | $6.352 |
| Nov. 2, 2026 | $6.292 |
| Nov. 3, 2025 (a year earlier) | $3.753 |
DAT put the cost in concrete terms. For a truck running 500 miles a day at 6 miles per gallon, fuel cost about $524 a day at September's average of $6.291, against $310 in February, when diesel averaged $3.722. That is about $1,070 more over a five-day week. DAT's estimated fuel surcharges reached records in September: 84 cents a mile for van, 92 cents for reefer and $1.01 for flatbed. DAT's Dean Croke noted that spot rates usually take three to four weeks to catch up with rising diesel, and carriers pay for the fuel in the meantime.
Capacity, not demand, is driving rates
The key point about this market is where the tightness comes from. DAT's Truckload Volume Index for September was down from a year earlier for all three equipment types: van 1%, reefer 10% and flatbed 7%. In August, DAT cited ATA chief economist Bob Costello's view that the market's recent tightening owes almost entirely to capacity leaving, not to freight demand returning. In its July report, DAT said it had not seen "a capacity-driven market quite like this one."
Regulation is part of the capacity story, though no published figure we found separates regulatory exits from carriers that left for financial reasons. What is documented:
- English proficiency enforcement. DOT said on August 7, 2026 that more than 26,000 drivers had been placed out of service since out-of-service enforcement began in June 2025.
- Non-domiciled CDLs. FMCSA expects its non-domiciled CDL rule to remove about 200,000 CDL holders as licenses come up for renewal. Our non-domiciled CDL guide covers the rule and the court case.
- Training and testing. FMCSA removed nearly 3,000 inactive CDL training providers from its registry in December 2025 and more than 110 more on August 31, 2026. See our 2026 CDL rules overview.
Because the non-domiciled rule mainly bites at renewal, its effect on capacity should keep building through 2027 unless the D.C. Circuit vacates it. That is a reason to expect tight capacity to persist even if demand stays soft, but it is a judgment, not a forecast from any of the sources above.
What this means for your cash flow
High rates with record fuel costs is the combination where factoring matters most. You pay for fuel at the pump today, but a broker may pay the invoice in 30 days or more. At $6 diesel, carrying a week of fuel for several loads ties up more cash than it did a year ago.
- Price spot loads on all-in cost. With fuel near $1 a mile on flatbed, check that a spot rate covers fuel at today's price, not last month's. A percentage factoring fee grows with the invoice, so a higher all-in rate also means a higher fee in dollars. Our guide to freight factoring costs explains how.
- Compare spot and contract offers on the same basis. Contract freight carries a fuel surcharge that adjusts with diesel. Spot doesn't. With contract paying more than spot in September, a contract lane may be worth more than it looks.
- Check fuel advances and fuel cards. If fuel is your biggest cash gap, ask each factor whether it offers fuel advances or fuel card discounts and what they cost before comparing headline rates. Our fuel card comparison covers the trade-offs.
- Run the numbers. Our factoring calculator shows what a given rate and advance mean in cash per load.
New carriers entering a tight market should read our guide to factoring with new authority. For an overview of factoring for trucking, see our freight and trucking page, and for how we evaluate factors, see our methodology. If you want to compare offers, you can request quotes from several factors with one form.